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SOPR breaks above 1.0 for the first time since March 22 as long-term holders dump coins at 187% profit.
Three days ago, Bitcoin sellers almost broke even for the first time in 12 days – and failed. SOPR touched 0.999, stalled, and rolled back over.
This time they didn’t just break even. They blew past it.
BTC jumped 3.4% to $69,086 on Saturday – its highest level since late March. The Spent Output Profit Ratio, a metric that tracks whether coins move at a profit or loss, flipped to 1.008. That’s the first positive reading in 13 consecutive days. After nearly two weeks of every on-chain transaction locking in losses, the market’s pain threshold finally cracked.
But somebody used that crack to get out.
SOPR flips green after 13 days – but not for everyone
The flip matters more than the price bounce. Bitcoin has rallied plenty during this drawdown – a 3.4% pop barely registers against a 45% decline from October’s $126,080 all-time high.
What changed Saturday is the behavior underneath.
For 13 straight days, from March 23 through April 4, every coin that moved on-chain across the entire Bitcoin network sold at a loss on average – the kind of sustained negative streak that hasn’t appeared since FTX collapsed in late 2022. And back then, it marked the cycle bottom within weeks.
Saturday broke the streak. But peel apart the components and the picture gets messy.
STH-SOPR, which tracks coins held under 155 days, landed at 0.9998. Essentially flat. Short-term holders – anyone who bought above $80K between November 2025 and March 2026 – are still underwater. The aggregate positive reading came almost entirely from one group: long-term holders.
That distinction matters.
We’ve tracked this SOPR streak across seven consecutive daily analyses now. Watching it grind from 0.988 to 0.995 to 0.998 to 0.999 and back down again felt like staring at a pressure gauge on a boiler with a jammed release valve – you know something’s going to give, you just don’t know which direction. Saturday’s flip didn’t just release pressure. It revealed who’d been waiting behind the door.
Long-term holders just took 187% profits into the bounce
So who exactly is selling into a 3.4% relief rally?
The veterans. Long-term holders – the same crowd that survived FTX, Luna, and COVID only to capitulate at a 24% loss barely ten days ago – posted an LTH-SOPR of 2.874 on Saturday. The average long-term coin that changed hands sold at nearly triple its original purchase price. A day earlier, LTH-SOPR sat at 0.886 – an 11% loss. The swing is, frankly, jarring.
Overnight, the same cohort went from capitulating to cashing out at 187% profit. That doesn’t happen unless a completely different set of wallets – older, cheaper coins – suddenly decides it’s time to exit.
Coin Days Destroyed, a measure of how “old” the coins being spent are, confirms it. Saturday’s CDD spiked to 14.8 million – roughly six times Friday’s 2.5 million.
Old coins moved. The last time CDD spiked this hard was March 31, when 23.9 million coin-days got destroyed during the quarter-close redistribution event.
“An LTH SOPR significantly below 1 could indicate a severe lack of conviction,” CryptoQuant analyst RugaResearch said earlier this week, when long-term holders were still dumping at a loss. Saturday’s 2.874 tells the opposite story – conviction didn’t vanish. It was waiting for a better exit price.
Binance backs this up from the exchange side. The platform’s BTC reserves climbed to 638,909 – up 2,677 BTC over the past week. Saturday saw a net inflow of 173 BTC, Sunday another 507. Coins are arriving at exchanges, not leaving.
Picture a packed parking garage where everyone’s been stuck behind a closed exit barrier. The second it lifts, every car floors it at once. That’s what Saturday’s SOPR flip looked like from the distribution side.
MVRV and Puell still flash buy signals despite the sell-off
The last time MVRV, the ratio between Bitcoin’s market value and its realized value (the network’s aggregate cost basis), dropped below 1.28 and parked there for more than a week, BTC traded at $16,000. November 2022. Within 90 days it had doubled.
Today’s MVRV reads 1.274. The average holder is sitting on roughly 27% unrealized profit – which sounds comfortable until you consider that during bull market peaks this ratio typically exceeds 3.5. At 1.27, how much selling pressure can realistically be left?
NUPL, which separates the network’s unrealized gains from its unrealized losses, recovered to 0.215 from last week’s 0.188 trough. That 0.188 was the closest Bitcoin’s come to the official capitulation zone – below 0.0, where aggregate losses exceed gains – since FTX.
And miners finally caught a break. The Puell Multiple, which compares daily miner revenue to its 365-day moving average, bounced to 0.756 from Thursday’s cycle low of 0.571. Thursday was the worst miner revenue reading since early 2023. Saturday’s recovery doesn’t fix the economics – miners remain deeply unprofitable below 1.0 – but the hemorrhaging slowed.
One detail that cuts both ways. SSR, the ratio of Bitcoin’s market cap to total stablecoin supply, rose from 9.81 last week to 10.22. Some of that stablecoin dry powder – roughly $135 billion worth – got deployed into Saturday’s rally. Good for bulls right now. Less ammunition for later.
Key levels: support at $67,200 and $66,000 (last week’s floor); resistance at $69,350 (Saturday’s high), $70,000 psychological, and $72,000 (late-March rejection).
If SOPR holds above 1.0 through Monday while exchange inflows stabilize, this rally could develop legs – the last time a 13-day sub-1.0 streak broke, BTC gained 34% within 60 days. But if LTH-SOPR stays elevated above 2.0 and Binance reserves keep climbing, what looks like recovery might just be distribution wearing a bull costume.
This analysis is part of our daily Bitcoin price tracking. See all previous analyses and key metrics on our hub page.
Sellers finally broke even – and the first thing long-term whales did was lock in 187% profits. Whether that’s smart repositioning or the opening act of a larger distribution event will likely define the rest of Q2.
This is not financial advice. DYOR. Data as of April 6, 2026.
Sources
- CoinGecko Bitcoin Data – price, market cap, ATH, supply
- CryptoQuant On-Chain Analytics – SOPR, LTH-SOPR, MVRV, NUPL, CDD, Puell Multiple, exchange flows, SSR
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