Bitcoin price analysis: $359M exits exchanges in a single day as reserves hit new 2026 low

🕑 5 min read

Bitcoin exchange reserves dropped to 2,668,985 BTC on April 25, the lowest level of 2026, after approximately $359 million in BTC left exchanges in a single day, according to CryptoQuant data. The weekly outflow of 15,157 BTC, worth roughly $1.18 billion, has extended a supply squeeze that began in late March when reserves stood above 2.7 million and the price hovered near $67,000.

Key Takeaways

• Exchange reserves dropped to 2,668,985 BTC on April 25, a new cycle low, with $1.18 billion drained in seven days and $359 million exiting in a single session.
• SOPR crashed to 0.984 on April 24 as short-term holders sold at a 3.2% loss while long-term holders locked in 19.1% profit, the widest divergence between the two cohorts since late March.
• Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $2.43 billion in April across an eight-day inflow streak, BlackRock IBIT entered the U.S. top 10 ETF rankings at 806,700 BTC, and Strategy added 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion on April 20.

Exchange reserves fall to 2.67 million BTC

Net exchange flows were negative in five of the past seven sessions, with the two largest single-day exits on April 21 and April 25 at 5,946 BTC and 4,626 BTC. Reserves have now declined for four consecutive weeks.

“Old whales are selling to TradFi,” said Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, describing a pattern in which long-held coins move from exchange wallets to institutional custody and ETF cold storage.

Binance, the largest exchange by reserves, saw its holdings drop to 616,695 BTC from 619,530 a week earlier. Across all exchanges, the 30-day decline totals roughly 37,000 BTC worth $2.88 billion at current prices.

SOPR diverges as short-term holders sell at loss

SOPR, a metric measuring whether the average transacting coin is spent at a profit or loss, dropped to 0.984 on April 24, its lowest reading in a week and a sharp reversal from the 1.001 breakeven crossing three days earlier. At that level, the average seller locked in a 1.6% loss.

Short-term holder SOPR, which isolates coins held for less than 155 days, fell to 0.968, a 3.2% loss. Long-term holder SOPR simultaneously surged to 1.191, with veteran holders taking 19.1% profit on coins acquired at far lower cost bases.

“This looks like late-cycle distribution,” said Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, pointing to long-term holder profit-taking during a recovery as a pattern that historically precedes extended consolidation. SOPR has remained below 1.0 for 69 of the past 90 sessions, according to CryptoQuant data, a rate not seen since the FTX cycle bottom in late 2022.

Bitcoin ETF inflows reach $2.43 billion in April

Institutional demand has accelerated alongside the exchange drain. Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $2.43 billion in net inflows through April 25, nearly double March’s $1.32 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed $167.5 million on April 24.

IBIT’s total holdings reached 806,700 BTC, roughly 3.8% of all circulating supply, placing the fund among the U.S. top 10 ETFs by assets. “IBIT cracking the top 10 is remarkable for a product that did not exist 18 months ago,” said Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Strategy purchased 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion on April 20, bringing its total to 815,061 BTC. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT ETF, launched on April 8 with a 0.14% expense ratio, crossed $103 million in cumulative inflows within six trading days, reflecting demand from a network of 16,000 advisors managing $6.2 trillion in client assets.

The Fear and Greed Index registered 60 on April 24, entering greed territory for the first time since January. The reading marks a sharp reversal from early April, when the index hit 5, among the lowest levels since the FTX collapse.

FTX cycle bottom showed similar SOPR pattern

The last time SOPR remained below 1.0 for a comparable stretch was November through December 2022, when Bitcoin traded between $16,500 and $17,000 after FTX’s collapse. NUPL, a metric measuring net unrealized profit and loss across all holders, sat at 0.178 in late March 2026, within the 0.15-0.20 capitulation zone that marked the 2022 bottom.

Bitcoin rallied from $16,500 to $49,000 over the following five months – a gain of 197%.

“When SOPR stays below 1.0 while exchange reserves are declining, the setup has historically preceded significant upside,” said Willy Woo, on-chain analyst, adding that the current NUPL recovery from 0.178 to 0.301 mirrors the early phase of the post-FTX rally.

One difference: in late 2022, aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest sat near $7 billion. Current open interest at $56.57 billion, according to CoinGlass, creates a different setup, with approximately $200 million in short liquidations clustered above $78,000 to $80,000. A breakout could trigger cascading closures, but the elevated positioning also raises the chance of sharp reversals if a negative catalyst emerges.

On-chain scorecard (4 of 6 bullish)

• ✅ Exchange reserves: 2,668,985 BTC, new cycle low (bullish)
• ⚠️ SOPR: 0.984, sellers at a loss (bearish short-term, historically marks bottoms)
• ✅ MVRV, a ratio comparing market value to realized value: 1.431, below overheated zone (bullish)
• ✅ NUPL: 0.301, exiting capitulation zone (bullish)
• ⚠️ Leverage ratio: 0.237, elevated from 0.223 deleveraging low (caution)
• ✅ ETF flows: $2.43 billion in April, eight-day streak (bullish)

TokenEcho Verdict

Direction: Cautiously bullish
Key level: $78,240, the April cycle high and previous February 4 resistance
Risk: LTH-SOPR at 1.191 signals veteran profit-taking into the rally. If distribution accelerates while short-term losses deepen, a failure at $78,000 to $80,000 resistance combined with $56.57 billion in open interest could trigger a leveraged reversal.
This is an analytical assessment, not financial advice.

What to watch in the next 48-72 hours

• A sustained close above $78,240 with daily volume exceeding $30 billion would confirm a breakout from the April range and bring $80,000 into focus, where approximately $200 million in short liquidations sit.
• SOPR reclaiming 1.0 from below would signal that sellers are no longer transacting at a loss, a shift that preceded the April 6-14 rally from $69,000 to $74,600.
• Exchange reserves falling below 2,660,000 BTC while ETF inflows continue would confirm the supply squeeze is accelerating toward late-2022 dynamics.

This analysis is part of TokenEcho’s daily Bitcoin price tracking. See all previous analyses and key metrics on the hub page.

This is not financial advice. Data as of April 25, 2026.

Sources: CoinGecko, CryptoQuant, CoinGlass, Farside Investors